
          South Without End
          By Suitts, SteveSteve Suitts and Tullos,  Allen Allen Tullos
          Vol. 5, No. 3, 1983, pp. 1-2
          
          The South has been born again in the gospel of American
presidential politics. "The South is the Key" was the shorter
catechism which brought the contenders to Atlanta's Jefferson-Jackson
Day Dinner late this winter and it is the slogan which we apparently
will have to chew on for many coming months. This emerging dogma goes
beyond the fact that two-and-a-half Southerners are announced
Democratic candidates for president. And, significantly, it has
appeared at a time when sociologists and historians have rejoined the
now-frayed debate over the very question of the South's historical
continuity, distinctiveness and validity.
          Just now, when the South appears to be a region fragmented by
Yellow-dog Democrats, suburban Republicans, newly registered blacks
and Yankee immigrants who have assumed the garb and gab of the Dukes
of Hazzard, just now, we are invited to believe the South is the
Key. And, now that the South is being subsumed under the bogus epithet
of "Sunbelt" or, more realistically, broken-up into a section of the
country which contains several contrasting regions, here come the
candidates with their "Howdy's" and "You-all's." For today's South not
only embraces the finely articulated, corporate-government-university
oasis of North_Carolina's Research Triangle and surroundings, it also
contains the grimiest tailings of nineteenth century industrial
capitalism in Birmingham, the lingering plantationism of the
Mississippi Delta, as well as the "international" aspirations of
Atlanta--a city too busy to wait. 
          To capture all this in the single garment of One South, much like
slipping the tar-baby into polyester coveralls, requires a politician
of clearly presidential caliber.
          With the passing of the Solid South, with Democratic orthodoxy no
longer taken for granted, the section becomes important because it is
now willing to be unfaithful to old creeds. Yet, like the wayward
Southerners to whom the television evangelists proclaim the
miraculous, conversion into anyone's fold may be rewarded with a
flicker of attention (provided you enclose your check) rather than a
genuine deliverance.
          The South's attractiveness to the political evangelists began with
the rules for selection of the 1984 delegates to 

the National
Democratic Convention. Almost one-fourth of all the votes at the San
Francisco convention will come from the eleven Southern_states from
Virginia to Texas. The complex computation of delegate distribution
rewards population size and Democratic voting patterns for the last
three presidential elections. Although the South has voted Republican
as often as Democratic in the last six presidential elections, its
loyal support for native son Jimmy Carter exceeded that of other
regions. With this advantage and increased population, the South will
have an important voice at the convention in San Francisco next
fall.
          The timing of Southern Democratic primaries next year also supports
the new gospel. Within two weeks following the traditional New
Hampshire primary at the end of February, five Southern_states will
select convention delegates. Alabama, Georgia and Florida will hold a
public primary on the same day, Tuesday, March thirteenth. Later in
the week, South_Carolina and Mississippi will probably choose
candidates through caucuses. A candidate who does well in all the
Southern primaries could lead the Democratic field even if he had not
received a delegate in any other state until then.
          In an era of televised imagery, the Southern primaries will also
offer the first major test of survival. Reuben Askew of Florida or
Ernest Hollings of South_Carolina must emerge as the South's choice if
their campaigns are to be considered seriously. For other Democrats,
Gary Hart of Colorado, John Glenn of Ohio and Alan Cranston of
California, Southern primaries offer the important moment to show
themselves as "electable." None of these men have their own state
party elections before May. Unless these candidates evidence strength
by March, they will have serious problems raising money and building
momentum to take to the convention.
          Glenn, who has ridden the ultimate stockcar into the heavens, may
have already missed his opportunity to impress upon Southerners his
candidacy's link with the  region's most popular spectator sport. He
should have' been in the grandstand, or aboard the pace-car, or
awarding the trophy to Richard Petty after the May Day running of the
Winston 500.
          Certainly. Walter Mondale, now leading in the national polling,
needs to demonstrate that his brand of politics can attract
Southerners in the March primaries; indeed, his gain of a sizable bloc
of delegates from the South could eliminate as many as half of his
competitors. He is already doing quite well in Iowa, Minnesota and
Massachusetts--states which hold their primaries shortly before the
South does.
          If several candidates can survive with their own state delegation's
support plus a bit more, the San Francisco convention could be the
first one since 1960 where the nominee is not chosen before the
opening prayer. The Western states could split between Cranston and
Hart; the Midwest could be Glenn's stronghold; Mondale may be the
choice of part of the Northeast and a scattering of other states
around his base in Minnesota: the South may choose one of its favorite
sons.
          With that outcome, it is likely that Southern delegates would be
first targets for conversion since their candidates would generally be
viewed as "good vice-presidential material."
          Nor is it inconceivable at such a convention that Dale Bumpers of
Arkansas, who half-heartedly withdrew from the race in April, would
emerge as a brokered, candidate. Bumpers' open indecision about
running for president prompted an unusual, premature national tent
revival of blacks, women and white liberal groups who rallied round
his candidacy.
          The gospel of an important South in presidential politics is by no
means limited to Democratic faith. Because of increased population,
the South will have additional votes in the electoral college. With
its noticeable support for Ronald Reagan in 1980, the section will be
especially attractive for proselytizing by Republicans.
          As the most consistent Democratic supporters, Southern black_voters
may find themselves in the front aisles. They are essential in almost
any candidate's projection for party victory in the region. Democrats
will need a very high level of support from blacks in the South,
especially if that party's candidate in the general election is not a
Southerner. Republicans also realize that a small defection of blacks
to their party could deny the Democrats the South.
          The one article which remains unclear in the new Southern, dogma is
perhaps the most important: if the South delivers the opportunity and
the votes that annoint a winning candidate, what does the South gain?
And which South? With no regional mandate on substantive issues within
Southern borders, the whole experience may be more akin to the clap
and trap of television evangelism than to a renewal of body and spirit
in the region. Southerners, especially the historically disfranchised,
must drive a hard bargain if substance is not to be sacrificed to
form.
        
